DIY Value Investor Journal

Friday, January 02, 2009

Humble Predictions for 2009

I would like to start this year making grand predictions about the market, using the wizardry of technical charts, fundamental analysis, seasonality, and gauging the emotions of the market. But the trading volumes for December, and the inflow of government money in January will make providing a prediction inaccurate. Instead, we investors need to achieve two things this year:

Gain experience in trading in a market whose direction is unknown
Achieve a state of objectivity for the markets

From 'Beyond the Bull - Taking Stock Market Wisdom to the Next Level' By Ken Norquay, we all need to learn from our experience. It's more than just going through the steps to make or lose money. We need to step outside of that reality to observe ourselves objectively:

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;

Norquay states that:

"Securities analysis is about predicting the future. But the more we understand what it means to be objective, the more we realize that everything in the future is unknown."

How is this zen concept resolved? Norquay says "we have to understand that there are many things we can never know. In order to be free, we have to embrace the unknown."

Cheers to embracing life by embracing the unknown this year for 2009. Above all this, invest only what you are willing to lose. I for one value my sleep.

In the end, the things that really matter to us is not money. It is time and experience.

Personal Performance Notes ending Dec 31 2008 on KaChing.com
as at Dec 31 2008

	Week	Month	3 Months	6 Months
Return	1.4%	1.2%	6.2%	31.3%
S&P 500	4.0%	10.7%	-22.2%	-29.7%
Rank (Elite)	19	16	11	10
Rank (Premium)				93 out of 32,840 competitors
Rank (Basic)				1,147 out of 325,997 competitors