Chris Lau - Seeking Alpha

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Highlights of TSG Stock Market Letter for Week of August 18, 2008
Full Article here:

I read this market letter regularly because the trading philosophy is congruent with my own. For example:

"Success in buying when there is blood in the streets depends on the market recovering in relatively short order. You are buying the premise that the bear market is the big lie but if you are wrong and the market is instead in a secular bear, it will prove to be an extremely expensive lesson. By the time you realize that you are wrong and are down 50%, you are faced with the daunting and nearly impossible task of generating a 100% return just to get your money back.

The moral? Be careful which lie you rely upon to invest. But more importantly, be quick to step off the trend the moment it looks like its being discredited. And from both a technical and fundamental perspective, it is far too early to tell if this bear market is a lie or the cruel truth in clever drag."

Of significance is a warning about U.S. Markets. Expect

We may have seen the large cap lows in mid-July (and maybe not) but failing a miracle, the charts are telling us that in lieu of some major buying volume, to expect more weakness ahead. And now emerging markets have joined the bear party.