Chris Lau - Seeking Alpha

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Nothing is Absolute

Treasury Secretary Geithner's tone and conviction that the "toxic mop up" plan will not fail is deeply disturbing:

"Congressman this plan will work. This plan because of the authority provided not just by Congress but the treasury and the Fed gives us broad ability to do what you need to do to get through a financial crisis like this. It just requires will; It's not about ability. We just need to keep at it. We just need to work with Congress to make sure we do this on a scale that will make it work."

When was the last time you heard someone so convinced that something would work, something that was, or that something will change? A gambler who wants to make another run at it to win his money back? A sales person who promises you something but has yet to prove it to you until you after you have bought it?

This is not a comparison of a treasury secretary to a gambler or sales person, but it is the tone of being so absolute that is frightening.

Market Bottom?

I Asked Don Vialoux on where he thought the market was headed:
Where do you think the market will be if indexes are able to rally ABOVE your technical upside targets? What charting patterns would you use at that point? Fundamentals in the banking system will need to be assessed. I suspect that as more confidence (or lack of) sets in, this will drive the market either back down (to re-test lows) or up to those resistance levels you discussed yesterday in your entry.

His Response:
Hi, Chris. The charts will let us know. Technical indicators such as Bullish Percent indices, Up/Down ratios and momentum indicators (particularly MACDs) need to be watched closely. They currently indicate that the TSX Composite and S&P 500 Index already has recorded about half of the gain in the current intermediate cycle. Adding current gains to possible future gains into early summer(i.e. the remaining 50% gain in the cycle) implies target prices close to levels reached on January 6th. Can equity markets exceed these target? Yes, if technical indicators continue to improve beyond normal parameters. But it’s too early to make that call at this time.

On a Completely Unrelated Matter:
IT World Canada magazine kicked off a writing contest. I am participating. Check it out here:
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