Chris Lau - Seeking Alpha

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Saturday, March 29, 2014

Facebook and Oculus Innovative Sciences

This is what happens when speculators confuse Facebook's acquisition of Oculus VR with the other company, Oculus Innovative Sciences, Inc.

Image Source: finviz

Monday, March 10, 2014

When the Stock Markets will Blow Up

Seth Klarman wondered when the meteoric rise in stock markets will rise. Howard Marks wondered that too. In Marks' latest memo, he answered by saying the markets will fall when it will. He does not know when, but knows that eventually, it will.

Marks' Oaktree Capitall recently issued shares for its stock (OAK). Insiders are cashing out.

Klarman wrote:
Someday...

Someday, financial markets will again decline. Someday, rising stock and bond markets will no longer be government policy – maybe not today or tomorrow, but someday. Someday, QE will end and money won’t be free. Someday, corporate failure will be permitted. Someday, the economy will turn down again, and someday, somewhere, somehow, investors will lose money and once again come to favor capital preservation over speculation. Someday, interest rates will be higher, bond prices lower, and the prospective return from owning fixed-income instruments will again be roughly commensurate with the risk.

Someday, professional investors will come to work and fear will have come to the markets and that fear will spread like wildfire. The news flow will be bad, and the markets will be tumbling.

My Guess

The markets played euphoria before. Well before 2008. Back in 1999-2001, batteries were all the rage. Batteries are once again in vogue. See PLUG. In the electric car market, look at Tesla.

Image source: Yahoo Finance

In social media, Facebook and Twitter get all the headlines, but Amazon and Yelp are the ones to watch.

In the end, all roads could lead from China. Demand for iron ore and energy dropped. Exports dropped 18% last month. China allowed its first debt default. This is unprecedented.


Click here the scoop on author's past performance.

Sunday, March 09, 2014

ISP (Internet) Woes



Investing Update: This pick rose ten percent last week (this url links to Seeking Alpha article). Look for the moves to be patchy and bumpy, but up for the rest of 2014.

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Saturday, March 01, 2014

Facebook Joke and Post of the Week

A machine learning researcher, a crypto-currency expert, and an Erlang programmer walk into a bar. Facebook buys the bar for $27 billion.

-- via ml hipster

Post of the week:

6 Month Return on the stock market game (and model portfolio): 11.59%. Most recent post here.