Chris Lau - Seeking Alpha

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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Kapitall Wire: Black Friday and Cyber Monday go head-to-head this holiday season

Black Friday and Cyber Monday go head-to-head this holiday season - An Infographic from Kapitall Wire

Embedded from Kapitall Wire

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Why BlackBerry is Surging

BlackBerry (BBRY) shares are surging. After making ten bullish calls on the company, the firm is finally delivering.


Track record: here: https://www.tipranks.com/experts/chris-lau 

Expect growth in the demand for security-enabled mobile devices, new devices in the Fall, mobile payments, and positive cash flow to follow.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Today's Pump and Dump

Shutterfly (SFLY) does not qualify as a pump and dump, but its momentum is certainly gone:



Chinese stock 500.com (WBAI) is down quite a bit too:



SolarCity (SCTY) is not faring too well:


Monday, May 12, 2014

Pump and Dump Stocks: The Great Unwind

A massive outflow of shares greeted current Twitter shareholders, as insiders sold their holdings. Naturally, mainstream analysts are calling the stock a 'buy' at $30.


Next up: MagicJack is unwinding all those gains made in recent months.


SMF Energy sounds like a new age energy company, but it is just a tech advertising firm:

The real fuel cell firm is not doing any better:





Thursday, April 10, 2014

Q1 2014 Performance Review

Originally posted here: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/71188-chris-lau/2828863-q1-2014-performance-review
To measure investment calls more accurately, positions added and removed throughout the quarter were recorded on Kapitall (off topic: which just made a major redesign today). The practice portfolio, which mirrors some of the real-world trades, peaked with a total return of 47.4%:
(click to enlarge)
The six-month performance looks much better, since it outperformed the S&P 500.
(click to enlarge)
6 Month return ~ 17%
Q1 2014 Return: ~7%
Chart as at April 10 2014
With the Nasdaq dropping 129.79 (3.10%) on April 10, 2014 and the S&P 500 dropping 39.10 points (2.09%), this portfolio might finally start to outperform the index.
The allocation in (AMD) continues to fluctuate. The chip maker is likely range-bound in the short term, but the intention is to build a large position throughout 2014. Closing below $4, AMD should be valued at much higher prices as profitability improves. The top three positions in this portfolio are:
  1. Bombardier (BDRAF)
  2. SeaDrill (SDRL)
  3. BlackBerry (BBRY)
Note: $66,000 / $144,425 available in the Kapitall portfolio is in cash.
Companies viewed as having value include: Nuance (NUAN) and Arena Pharma (ARNA).
Position in Kindred (KIN) and (ADHD) might increase in the current quarter.

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Facebook and Oculus Innovative Sciences

This is what happens when speculators confuse Facebook's acquisition of Oculus VR with the other company, Oculus Innovative Sciences, Inc.

Image Source: finviz

Monday, March 10, 2014

When the Stock Markets will Blow Up

Seth Klarman wondered when the meteoric rise in stock markets will rise. Howard Marks wondered that too. In Marks' latest memo, he answered by saying the markets will fall when it will. He does not know when, but knows that eventually, it will.

Marks' Oaktree Capitall recently issued shares for its stock (OAK). Insiders are cashing out.

Klarman wrote:
Someday...

Someday, financial markets will again decline. Someday, rising stock and bond markets will no longer be government policy – maybe not today or tomorrow, but someday. Someday, QE will end and money won’t be free. Someday, corporate failure will be permitted. Someday, the economy will turn down again, and someday, somewhere, somehow, investors will lose money and once again come to favor capital preservation over speculation. Someday, interest rates will be higher, bond prices lower, and the prospective return from owning fixed-income instruments will again be roughly commensurate with the risk.

Someday, professional investors will come to work and fear will have come to the markets and that fear will spread like wildfire. The news flow will be bad, and the markets will be tumbling.

My Guess

The markets played euphoria before. Well before 2008. Back in 1999-2001, batteries were all the rage. Batteries are once again in vogue. See PLUG. In the electric car market, look at Tesla.

Image source: Yahoo Finance

In social media, Facebook and Twitter get all the headlines, but Amazon and Yelp are the ones to watch.

In the end, all roads could lead from China. Demand for iron ore and energy dropped. Exports dropped 18% last month. China allowed its first debt default. This is unprecedented.


Click here the scoop on author's past performance.

Sunday, March 09, 2014

ISP (Internet) Woes



Investing Update: This pick rose ten percent last week (this url links to Seeking Alpha article). Look for the moves to be patchy and bumpy, but up for the rest of 2014.

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Saturday, March 01, 2014

Facebook Joke and Post of the Week

A machine learning researcher, a crypto-currency expert, and an Erlang programmer walk into a bar. Facebook buys the bar for $27 billion.

-- via ml hipster

Post of the week:

6 Month Return on the stock market game (and model portfolio): 11.59%. Most recent post here.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Kate Upton in Zero Gravity


Moneyshot at WhatsApp HQ

That colossal gasp expressed by everyone over the WhatsApp buy is what it is: noise. It doesn't change this: The smartest people were those from WhatsApp. 

WhatsApp HQ:




Image source:@Stocktwits 

Posted: https://plus.google.com/105927011583510008537/posts/KdsNRa2ySWm 

Thursday, February 20, 2014

WhatsApp...Uninstalled

$19 billion (paid mostly with funny money). I guess Facebook really wants to control instant messaging.

I’d give my data to Google over Facebook any day. WhatsApp uninstalled:






Wednesday, February 12, 2014

The End all to the Google+ Versus Facebook Debate

Me: I don't Facebook much. I'm on Google+. Response: That's the first I've ever heard of Google+ Below. The number that matters is not followers, but +1's per post.

Friday, January 31, 2014

Review: BlackBerry 10.2.1




Link: http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/review-blackberry-10-2-1-another-step-in-right-direction/88895

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Easy Come, Easy Go

My physics teacher once said that if it's good to be true, it probably is. The stock market is up a mouth-watering amount, outperforming everything except bitcoin from 2009 - present, and illustrates that point.