Chris Lau - Seeking Alpha

Monday, November 03, 2008

Toronto Real Estate: Price Moderation in October

I have compiled some aggregate sales figures for Toronto Real Estate for the month of October. It is the same story. There is a flurry of active listings when comparing monthly and yearly figures. The total sold has fallen in most areas. Prices have mostly fallen

Monthly
Central - activity (# listings) up 14%, but total number sold is down 16.8%. Average prices up 1.6% but median prices down 5%
East - activity (# listings) up 2%, but total number sold is down 22%. Average prices up 1% and median prices up 3.5%
West - activity (# listings) up 3.5%, but total number sold is down 19%. Average prices down 7% and median prices down 9%
North - activity (# listings) up 2.4%, but total number sold is down 22%. Average prices down 5.9% and median prices down 0.7%


Yearly
Central - activity (# listings) up 65%, but total number sold is down 44%. Average prices down 9.2% but median prices down 17%
East - activity (# listings) up 21%, but total number sold is down 14%. Average prices down 3% but median prices up 0.5%
West - activity (# listings) up 28%, but total number sold is down 13.4%. Average prices down 7.8% and median prices up 1%
North - activity (# listings) up 48%, but total number sold is down 39%. Average prices down 7.2% and median prices down 4.5%

Why would prices be falling here? We see no major job losses and Toronto does not have direct exposure to the fallen commodities market. Supply is increasing because people are seeing the US housing bust storm headed our way. The Toronto stock market was also weak last month due to the falling commodities prices globally.

Just this past weekend I would stroll along various streets. There are literally 3-5 open houses on some blocks.
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